COVID-19 Data Analysis

ITALY REGIONS OVERVIEW

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REGIONS DATA TABLE

Rt

Italy regions $R_t$ (effective reproduction number in time $t$) calculated with Bayesian approach (Bettencourt & Ribeiro 2008 and Kevin Systrom 2020).

(read here for details)

ML High_50 Low_50
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo 1.21 1.63 0.75
Basilicata 1.08 1.75 0.42
Calabria 0.94 1.42 0.44
Campania 1.41 1.65 1.17
Emilia-Romagna 1.31 1.56 1.06
Friuli Venezia Giulia 1.12 1.53 0.68
Lazio 1.07 1.30 0.84
Liguria 1.30 1.65 0.94
Lombardia 1.27 1.47 1.06
Marche 0.87 1.31 0.42
Molise 0.60 1.46 0.21
P.A. Bolzano 0.92 1.38 0.44
P.A. Trento 1.49 2.05 0.91
Piemonte 1.34 1.64 1.04
Puglia 1.35 1.69 1.01
Sardegna 1.27 1.58 0.95
Sicilia 0.92 1.25 0.57
Toscana 1.31 1.60 1.02
Umbria 1.34 1.76 0.90
Valle d'Aosta 0.64 1.83 0.21
Veneto 1.04 1.28 0.79
ML High_50 Low_50
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo 1.270000 1.714286 0.797143
Basilicata 1.221429 1.938571 0.475714
Calabria 1.034286 1.520000 0.504286
Campania 1.621429 1.872857 1.370000
Emilia-Romagna 1.448571 1.707143 1.188571
Friuli Venezia Giulia 1.270000 1.705714 0.815714
Lazio 1.335714 1.568571 1.101429
Liguria 1.362857 1.728571 0.988571
Lombardia 1.482857 1.691429 1.267143
Marche 0.922857 1.365714 0.452857
Molise 0.591429 1.465714 0.207143
P.A. Bolzano 1.107143 1.587143 0.582857
P.A. Trento 1.400000 1.984286 0.774286
Piemonte 1.382857 1.692857 1.067143
Puglia 1.455714 1.808571 1.101429
Sardegna 1.572857 1.900000 1.244286
Sicilia 1.004286 1.341429 0.654286
Toscana 1.424286 1.725714 1.121429
Umbria 1.494286 1.947143 1.030000
Valle d'Aosta 0.622857 1.942857 0.192857
Veneto 1.202857 1.447143 0.951429

GROWTH

Read here for current method PDF.

deceduti

beta

mean sd hdi_0.5% hdi_99.5%
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo -0.569 282.230 -486.846 476.544
Basilicata 1.926 280.684 -479.958 484.038
Calabria 1.685 281.324 -486.885 477.562
Campania -2.147 0.490 -3.620 -0.876
Emilia-Romagna 8.600 2.765 3.945 18.110
Friuli Venezia Giulia 0.492 0.819 -1.928 2.874
Lazio 0.416 0.254 -0.263 1.154
Liguria -2.103 1.083 -5.694 0.646
Lombardia -1.374 0.324 -2.316 -0.499
Marche -0.300 281.888 -483.293 481.016
Molise 0.613 280.736 -477.642 485.211
P.A. Bolzano 0.356 280.395 -477.362 486.469
P.A. Trento -0.410 281.252 -479.173 484.658
Piemonte -1.939 0.344 -2.959 -1.036
Puglia -2.151 1.410 -6.103 0.767
Sardegna -0.473 280.567 -477.236 486.876
Sicilia 1.021 11.006 -45.857 74.693
Toscana -0.290 1.161 -3.730 2.770
Umbria -1.931 280.857 -486.333 476.933
Valle d'Aosta 1.535 282.170 -477.727 486.629
Veneto 0.631 0.363 -0.382 1.645

fitted

totale_casi

beta

mean sd hdi_0.5% hdi_99.5%
denominazione_regione
Abruzzo -0.914 0.188 -1.427 -0.399
Basilicata -1.289 0.532 -2.812 0.156
Calabria 1.849 0.214 1.250 2.441
Campania 2.095 0.099 1.827 2.372
Emilia-Romagna 0.061 0.085 -0.171 0.299
Friuli Venezia Giulia 0.935 0.154 0.514 1.359
Lazio 1.581 0.050 1.441 1.718
Liguria 1.934 0.243 1.294 2.614
Lombardia -0.132 0.090 -0.378 0.113
Marche 0.830 0.168 0.371 1.308
Molise 2.264 0.531 0.909 3.853
P.A. Bolzano -0.298 0.225 -0.926 0.305
P.A. Trento -1.244 0.162 -1.683 -0.797
Piemonte 0.604 0.086 0.364 0.838
Puglia 0.645 0.122 0.317 0.984
Sardegna 0.796 0.222 0.169 1.396
Sicilia 0.857 0.130 0.489 1.218
Toscana 0.921 0.111 0.619 1.231
Umbria 0.868 0.136 0.488 1.251
Valle d'Aosta -2.610 0.752 -4.983 -0.757
Veneto 0.644 0.139 0.261 1.030

fitted

Summary

Growths summary:

deceduti totale_casi
growth beta alpha growth beta alpha
Abruzzo None 0 0 dec -0.91 12.46
Basilicata None 0 0 lin -1.29 2.46
Calabria None 0 0 exp 1.85 6.00
Campania dec -2.15 0.31 exp 2.10 19.85
Emilia-Romagna exp 8.60 12.46 lin 0.06 48.31
Friuli Venezia Giulia lin 0.49 0.15 exp 0.94 7.38
Lazio lin 0.42 0.46 exp 1.58 33.08
Liguria lin -2.10 0.08 exp 1.93 16.92
Lombardia dec -1.37 1.69 lin -0.13 80.23
Marche None 0 0 exp 0.83 10.62
Molise None 0 0 exp 2.26 0.77
P.A. Bolzano None 0 0 lin -0.30 5.23
P.A. Trento None 0 0 dec -1.24 1.69
Piemonte dec -1.94 0.62 exp 0.60 28.69
Puglia lin -2.15 0.08 exp 0.65 16.15
Sardegna None 0 0 exp 0.80 5.92
Sicilia lin 1.02 0.15 exp 0.86 35.23
Toscana lin -0.29 0.15 exp 0.92 25.00
Umbria None 0 0 exp 0.87 5.62
Valle d'Aosta None 0 0 dec -2.61 0.62
Veneto lin 0.63 1.54 exp 0.64 75.15
ERR None dec lin exp
deaths 0 10 3 7 1
cases 0 0 3 4 14

For cumulative total cases

  • 14 regions 66.67% are likely exponentially growing
  • 4 regions 19.05% are likely almost linearly growing
  • 3 regions 14.29% are likely exponentially decaying
  • 0 regions 0.00% are likely constant

For cumulative total deaths:

  • 1 regions 4.76% are likely exponentially growing
  • 7 regions 33.33% are likely almost linearly growing
  • 3 regions 14.29% are likely exponentially decaying
  • 10 regions 47.62% are likely constant

In 67% regions, cases are growing exponetially and in 14% the situation is likely solved or about to resolution (no growth or exponential decay).

On the other hand, in 62% regions deaths are not growing or decaying and 5% are showing an exponential growth of deaths.

Linearly growing regions (19% for cases and 33% for deaths) situation is not severe but likely not currently resolving.

FIRST ENTRY DATE: 2020-02-24T18:00:00
LAST  ENTRY DATE: 2020-08-17T17:00:00
COVERAGE: 174 days
CURRENT DATE IS: 2020-08-17 23:34:11

TOTAL CASES

DEATHS

RECOVERED

INFECTED

MORTALITY RATE

!!! PLEASE NOTE !!!

These rates are only useful for SIRD epidemiological model (read here for details) not to define COVID-19 actual rates.

RECOVERY RATE

OSPITALIZED DETAILS

© 2020 Max Pierini & Sandra Mazzoli & Alessio Pamovio

Exported from italy/regions-overview.ipynb committed by Max Pierini on Mon Aug 31 10:59:12 2020 revision 1, 8eb7ef8